Social change and the emergence of new trends often result from “social learning” – people learning from their own experiences over time and then correcting what come to be seen as “mistakes”. Our founding Chairman, Daniel Yankelovich, calls the process by which social learning leads to new trends “lurch and learn.”

As we see it, society does not change like a pendulum, swinging back and forth (as some social observers suggest.) Rather, social change is more complex and, we believe, follows the pattern described below. (Also see Understanding Trends)

Lurch and Learn

Step #1: Due to a trend spark, and pulled by trend leaders, society lurches in a new direction.  The term “lurch” is used because the change (the trend shift) is often dramatic and done with little forethought – a blind leap of sorts.

Step #2: Once society lurches, it is faced with the reality of the change – and experiences its consequences.  Typically, social learning occurs at this point – a sorting out of what about the change was good and what, perhaps, was not-so-good.

Step #3: Based on its learning, society experiences another trend shift.  This shift is not back in the old direction, but rather in a new – somewhat synthesized – direction.

An example of a major “lurch and learn” is Americans and their relationship to authority.

1950s and earlier:

The US in the 1950s and earlier was a pro-authority society.  Be it government, church or dad in the household, authority was respected and generally unquestioned.

Late 1950s through 1960s:

During this time, trend leaders start to question the status quo.  Further, some major trend sparks occur which add momentum for a trend shift.

1970s through early 1990s:

During this time, much (not all, but most) of society has lurched in a new, anti-authority direction.  New anti-authority values have replaced the old pro-authority values.  Different segments of society hold these new values to different degrees, but almost all have experienced real change.

Mid 1990s – Mid 2000s:

Social learning takes place.  Many Americans realize that while some aspects of anti-authority are a positive, in other ways the trend shift was seen as excessive.  For example, many feel that children are harmed by a society that has no clear authority figures.  Also, the terrorist attacks of 9/11 made many realize that some institutions (government, military) need to have significant authority and power.

As a result, the lurch is altered and a new, synthesized direction becomes apparent.

Mid 2000s – 2010:

New trend sparks and trend leaders cause another “lurch”…

What will the learning from this current lurch be?